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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.